报告人：Jürgen Kurths 教授（波茨坦气候影响研究所）

时间：2024年10月21日 10:30-

地址：理科楼LA103

摘要：The Earth system is a very complex and dynamical one basing on various feedbacks. This makes predictions and risk analysis even of very strong (sometime extreme) events as floods, landslides, heatwaves, and earthquakes etc. a challenging task. Several recent examples of extreme climate events will be given.

Next, I will introduce a recently developed approach via complex networks. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? To treat this problem, we have proposed a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from spatio-temporal data based on a nonlinear causality analysis. This approach enables us to uncover relations even between far away tipping points as Amazonia and the Tibetan Plateau, but also to follow-up rather short phenomena as tropical cyclones.

Then extreme events are studied from this perspective by means of the recently proposed nonlinear event synchronization analysis. This way we discover relations to global and regional circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere, which lead to construct substantially better predictions, in particular for the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, or El Nino.

邀请人：吴风艳

欢迎广大师生积极参与！